Hawzah News Agency- Following provocative threats by U.S. President Donald Trump against Oman, commentator Morteza Najafi Qodsi has issued a stark analysis, urging both Iranian and Omani officials to take Washington's war plans seriously.
Trump's Ultimatum and the Strait Deadlock
Trump recently made a startling remark, warning that if Oman acts "differently" in the Strait of Hormuz, it will "blow up." He stressed that the U.S. does not accept any joint Iranian-Omani agreements to control the waterway, declaring that the strait "must be open to all," with no single actor holding control, and that Washington itself would serve as its guardian.
These statements betray a dangerous new blueprint. For three months, the United States has faced a complete deadlock in its campaign to dominate the Strait of Hormuz. Plans to invade Iranian islands and coastal areas were abandoned in the face of Iran's overwhelming military readiness and popular mobilization, which promised to turn the Persian Gulf into a "graveyard for thousands of American soldiers." The U.S. naval show of force, featuring destroyers sailing under great fanfare, ended in retreat after Iranian missile strikes damaged their vessels. Air operations have fared no better, with U.S. officials admitting at least 39 American aircraft have been damaged or downed, alongside dozens of advanced multi-million-dollar drones, all while Iran's armed forces continue to track and destroy even the smallest reconnaissance assets.
Militarily, the U.S. has reached an impasse. It is confronted with either accepting Iran's stated conditions—signaling a strategic defeat, the decline of its superpower status, and a cascading loss of global fear and influence—or devising a new plot.
The Omani Front: Washington's Next Move?
The new plot, the analysis suggests, is the invasion and occupation of Oman. The reasoning is multifaceted:
First, the United States views Arab nations as personal fiefdoms. Military bases are installed to guarantee compliant sovereignty, with ruling sheikhs effectively serving as appointed managers, to be toppled at the slightest sign of defiance. Saddam Hussein was supported as long as he remained obedient; the moment he was perceived as insubordinate, he was overthrown within weeks. Other Arab states operate with full knowledge that their independence is a mirage—any dealings with China or Russia require prior permission from their American master. Oman, with its friendly, deep-rooted relationship with Iran, is uniquely vulnerable, especially given Washington's determination to block any bilateral agreement on administering their shared territorial waters.
Second, while Omani officials have served as intermediaries in Iran-U.S. talks and sought to project neutrality, they are unlikely to resist Washington's will, nor do they desire a confrontation with Tehran, understanding their survival depends on peaceful coexistence. In a best-case scenario, this paralysis means no independent Iranian-Omani initiative on the strait will take shape. Seizing on this, the U.S. could launch a swift, sudden strike to overthrow Oman's monarchy, mobilizing the tens of thousands of troops it has amassed in the region to fully occupy the country. The strait would then be split between Iran on the northern bank and a U.S. occupying force on the southern shore, directly triggering a new and perilous phase of confrontation.
A Crucial Precedent and a Call for Action
The clock is ticking for Oman. The only path to national survival is to seize the initiative before it is too late and formally request assistance from the Islamic Republic of Iran. The deployment of Iranian forces on Omani shores, the analysis argues, would decisively derail Washington's scheme.
A historical parallel serves as a stark warning: When Egypt's revolutionaries brought Mohammad Morsi to power, the Islamic Republic offered proposals to help preserve their revolution and authority. Blinded by Salafist ideology, they ignored Tehran's advice, with Morsi even refusing to meet Iran's Supreme Leader during a summit in Tehran. The result was a coup that toppled their government within a year.
The Sultanate now finds itself at a similar crossroads. The U.S., unable to win at sea or force Iran's hand, views the occupation of Oman's coast as its only remaining option. Unless a real agreement is reached with Tehran, Oman risks becoming the next battlefield in Washington's failing campaign to rule the Strait of Hormuz.
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